The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 15th Conference of Parties

Dear all,

We’re on air: the Copenhagen Climate Summit started this morning - with 41 minutes delay. It was at 10:41 local time on Monday morning when a group of high-level speakers took their seats on the panel of the opening plenary in the Bella Center. Yvo de Boer, the Executive Secretary of the UN climate secretariat, came with a bright smile. Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Prime Minister of host country Denmark, looked confident. And Connie Hedegaard, Danish Minister and President of COP15, shook many hands on her way up to the panel. It was obvious that they aimed at an optimistic start, to boost hope for a positive outcome of these negotiations.

Before any speeches were given, however, a short film reminded the delegates that the world is watching and demanding a deal. In the film, a little girl is plagued by nightmares about being caught in a catastrophe, after watching news reports about devastating climate impacts on TV. At the end the girl wakes up and takes a camera to tape a statement to leaders about the frightening realities of our times and the dark visions of her dreams. She says into the camera: “Please help change the world!” This was quite dramatic, and saw the plenary burst into applause. Trumpets and harps tuned into the charged atmosphere, and a Danish girls’ choir started singing hymns.

For those who hadn’t yet understood that Copenhagen is about our future, the subsequent speeches emphasized it once more. Prime Minister Rasmussen spoke a lot about ambition, but it didn’t quite feel like he was burning for the idea. His Minister, Connie Hedegaard, chose a different tone. “Let’s get it done!” was the recurring theme of her speech, a speech that was strong and full of fighting spirit. Hedegaard made a good point when highlighting that the momentum for an agreement has never been bigger and might never again be as big as it’s now – an important reminder for the world to grab this precious opportunity and indeed finally “get it done”.

Yvo de Boer went into the details of what he thought should be agreed in Copenhagen, but his multi-layered Christmas cake metaphors didn’t really answer all the important questions. The politicians left it to Rajendra Pachauri – Indian Nobel laureate and chair of the IPCC – to fill overused adjectives like “ambitious” with meaning, reminding the world of the real threats we are facing and what has to be done in terms of concrete targets and financial support to protect people and nature.

And Pachauri was clear that we are facing dangerous consequences, that emission reductions have to be much deeper than previously pledged, and that action now is far cheaper than paying the bill later when disaster strikes.

So for the record: everyone thinks we need a deal, everyone seems to want a deal, and everyone says we can get a deal. What this deal will look like and how we get it, however, is the big open question that Copenhagen still has to answer. And while a positive start with optimistic speeches and fighting spirit is important, we have to turn the welcome momentum into real change now, the change the little girl in the film has been asking for, the change that will transform this planet and lead us into a low carbon future. The haggling between parties that started right after the festive opening speeches – during a discussion about the agenda for the next weeks – indicated that the way towards success will be a very rocky road.

However, the two negotiating tracks, the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG LCA) and the Ad-Hoc Working Group for the Kyoto Protocol (AWG KP), did their job and went through their procedural discussions swiftly and without too much upheaval. That means they are all set to get to work now, to turn around text, to draft our future, to get rid of the square brackets, to replace loopholes with ambition. None of that happened today, negotiators just did what they had to do, but at least no precious time was wasted. And the idea to end Copenhagen with a loose and unreliable political deal seems to be getting less popular by the day. All developing country groupings referred to the need for a legally binding deal in their statements.

There was some other good news, with the US Environmental Protection Agency announcing today that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare, which ultimately sets the stage for regulation of global warming pollution under the country’s Clean Air Act. This underscores the US administration's seriousness about climate change, but the US will also still need legislation to come out of the Senate, for the international community to trust that the US will follow through on the medium and long term emission reduction targets announced by President Obama last week.

France also talked about targets today, when Climate Minister Borloo, one of the few EU ministers attending the COP15 opening day, announced a French plan to push the EU to increase the block’s emission reduction target for 2020 from 20% to 30%. The Swedish EU Presidency announced the same ambition, but Borloo said one thing more: He said that France would meet its national emission reduction targets purely through domestic action, rather than buying cheap offset credits from abroad. No other European country has been so clear in its ambition for what it does inside its own territory, and that ambition is very welcome.

Borloo also talked about increased financial support for Africa and other developing countries, and that this money should come mainly from public rather than only from private sources – a good move that puts pressure on the EU Council meeting of Heads of States at the end of the week. Will Europe raise the bar and finally return to old leadership strength?

On a final note: The rooms at the Bella Center are named after famous Danes like Hans Christian Andersen or Karen Blixen. The big plenary hall is named after Tycho Brahe, an astronomer, the Danish equivalent of Galileo. Legend has it that he died at a fine dinner in Prague, where he urgently needed to go to the toilet, but felt he couldn’t really leave the table. According to the legend, his bladder burst, and that killed him. We really hope that the Danes haven’t chosen this name for the plenary because they foresee a COP that runs over time, with terrible consequences for the participants. Maybe they just wanted to suggest that we should all reach for what Tycho Brahe observed: the stars.

Actually, nothing else will be good enough.

Keep up the good spirit – and if you want to see more of what we’re doing at COP15, visit WWFs Inside COP15 video blog at http://cop15.panda.org/

Kim & Christian

WWF: Will President Obama Lead Our Country at the UN Climate Conference?

Hello Green Team,

Check out this video and send it out to whoever you know.

The US plays an important part in ensuring that a successful and binding deal comes out of Copenhagen. We need to realize that we can only protect our future by acting as one and thinking of all.

click this link.

Yours truly,
WWF-Philippines

Obama and Hu aim to agree greenhouse gas targets

Statement by leaders of world's two biggest polluters could breathe new life into Copenhagen climate change talks.

Link

The US and China, the world's two biggest polluters, today said they aimed to set targets for easing greenhouse gas emissions next month, potentially breathing new life into the flagging Copenhagen climate negotiations.

Days after the US president, Barack Obama, said time to secure a legally binding agreement had run out, he and the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, agreed at a summit that they would continue to press for a comprehensive deal at Copenhagen that would "rally the world".

"Our aim there, in support of what the prime minister [Lars Løkke] Rasmussen of Denmark is trying to achieve, is not a partial accord or a political declaration, but rather an accord that covers all of the issues in the negotiations and one that has immediate operational effect," Obama said after holding talks with Hu in Beijing.

In a joint communique, the leaders said an accord in Denmark should include emission reduction targets for rich nations and a declaration of action plans to ease greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries.

Countering concerns that a non-legal deal could evade many key issues, the communique said the climate talks should also increase financial assistance to developing countries, promote technology development, help poor communities to adapt and enhance forest protection.

The two governments also signed agreements to co-operate in the field of low-carbon technology, including the establishment of a joint research centre and the promotion of "cleaner coal" power plants, green buildings and electric cars.

Hu said China and the US had agreed to expand co-operation on climate change, energy and the environment and to "help produce positive outcomes out of the Copenhagen conference".

After weeks in which national leaders have been downplaying expectations for Copenhagen, environmental groups said today's words from the US and China – which between them account for 40% of the world's emissions – had gone some way towards restoring ambitions for the summit.

They called for specific targets to be met, but said more political will was needed to ensure a successful outcome.

During wide-ranging talks with Hu, Obama raised differences over Tibet, human rights, trade and Iran.

While Hu made a pointed reference to trade disputes, the overall focus of the two leaders was on collaboration as they lauded increased co-operation between the countries on issues such as the economy and non-proliferation.

Today's event had been described as a press conference, but no questions were allowed.

Instead, Hu and Obama delivered brief prepared comments on their discussions, which had lasted for two and a half hours.

Obama said the relationship between the US and China went "far beyond any single issue", while Hu described the meeting as "candid, constructive and very fruitful".

However, he added: "I stressed to President Obama that, under current circumstances, our two countries need to oppose and reject protectionism in all its manifestations in an even stronger stand."

Obama said China's partnership with the US had been critical to attempts to end the recession, but again stressed the importance of balanced economic growth and pointedly praised his hosts' commitment "to move towards a more market-oriented exchange rate over time".

China is angry about US steel pipe and tyre tariffs, and is also concerned that the US deficit could threaten its vast dollar holdings as the largest foreign lender to the country.

The US wants China to allow further appreciation of the renminbi in order to shift the huge trade imbalance.

Hu called on the US to respect China's "core interests" – a reference to Taiwan and Tibet.

Obama said the US accepted that Tibet was part of China, but went on to call for the early resumption of talks between Beijing and the Dalai Lama.

He also said the governments would resume their on-off human rights dialogue early next year.

Obama told reporters he had spoken to his counterpart "about Americans' bedrock belief that all men and women possess certain fundamental human rights" and stressed that these applied to "religious and ethnic minorities".

The US president thanked Hu for Chinese support for non-proliferation and the elimination of North Korea's nuclear programme, and the countries are focusing on restarting the collapsed six-party talks.

However, their differences on Iran were obvious, with Obama saying Tehran "has an opportunity to present and demonstrate its peaceful intentions, but if it fails to take this opportunity, there will be consequences".

Hu said only that the issue should be resolved through negotiations. Iran is a long-standing ally of China.

The Chinese leader will hold a state banquet in Obama's honour tonight.

WWF: A LEGALLY BINDING DEAL IS STILL POSSIBLE

According to WWF, a legally binding deal in Copenhagen still can be achieved.

“Rumors about the death of the Copenhagen deal have been greatly exaggerated,” Carstensen said. “The fight is still on and there is still a great chance for leaders to agree on a binding and ambitious deal which can save the world from devastating droughts, floods and hurricanes.”
"A 'political deal' is not going to survive the next election, recession or natural disaster. We need a strong, 'legally binding' agreement that will last longer than one parliamentary term."

“It may be tempting for some politicians to downplay expectations for an ambitious outcome but there is absolutely no justification for that.” "The majority of the world wants to see a binding outcome in Copenhagen and not end this year with an informal chat."

“There is still enough time to agree on every single detail of a climate deal. A declaration that a deal is binding would take a only a few seconds. There is no lack of time, there is lack of political
will.”

“A failure to agree on a legally binding and ambitious agreement in Copenhagen could have devastating consequences.”

For more information, please contact:

Kim CARSTENSEN
Leader, Global Climate Deal NI
tel: +45 35 24 78 60
mobile: +45 40 34 36 35
k.carstensen@wwf.dk ( mailto:k.carstensen@wwf.dk )

10 Steps for Success in Copenhagen

1. Governments at Copenhagen need to create a legally binding framework with an amended Kyoto Protocol and a new Copenhagen Protocol, which secures the survival of countries, cultures and ecosystems and clears the way to the low carbon economy.

2. Global emissions peak before 2017 keeping overall warming well below the 2°C danger threshold, going down to below 1.5°C as soon as possible.

3. Industrialized countries commit to reduce their emissions by 40% by 2020, compared to 1990 levels.

4. Developing countries agree to undertake significant action making emissions at least 30% lower than Business-As-Usual by 2020.

5. Emissions from forest destruction are reduced by three quarters (75%) by 2020, taking into account indigenous peoples’ and local communities' rights.

6. A framework for immediate adaptation action is set in place, especially for vulnerable countries and ecosystems, including the provision of insurance and compensation.

7. Public finance of at least US$160 billion per year is provided to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation through innovative sources of finance.

8. Mechanisms are set up to strengthen technology cooperation on research, development and dissemination of low-carbon and climate-resilient technologies.

9. A new institutional set-up under the UNFCCC allows for coordination, implementation and funding allocation, in a transparent and democratic way, and incentivizes compliance.

10. Parties agree transparent and comparable standards for carbon markets, forests and land use, mitigation efforts and inventories, and ways to limit international aviation and shipping emissions.

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Despite what appears to loom overhead on December, we still continue to fight for our right to live on this planet. Spread the word about the need for a binding deal, use your voices, steer your actions, be informed and empower the movement. It'll take all of us together to be heard but it only takes one act at a time to inspire change.

Join us. This is your living planet too.

CNN: No Climate Change Deal Likely

Singapore (CNN) -- President Obama and leaders from the rest of the world's top economic powers acknowledged Sunday that there's no hope of a major breakthrough over climate change by year's end. The acknowledgment followed Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen telling the leaders gathered for the APEC summit in Singapore that next month's conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, is no longer likely to yield a major accord to battle global warming. Mike Froman, a White House deputy national security adviser, told reporters that none of the leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum "thought it was likely we would reach a final agreement in Copenhagen, and yet they felt it was important that Copenhagen be a step forward." As a result, Obama and other leaders are endorsing a new two-step process that aims to use Copenhagen as a stepping stone for a bigger accord down the road. Obama made a surprise appearance at a breakfast devoted to climate change at the APEC summit in Singapore on Sundapresident told the other leaders it's important for at least someprogress to be made next month.


Barack Obama
"The president spoke about the importance of achieving success in Copenhagen," Froman said. But the definition of "success" seems to be changing. Rasmussen briefed the leaders on preparations for the long-awaited international conference in his homeland and drastically scaled back expectations. Rasmussen unveiled a strategy that he dubbed "one agreement, two steps," aimed at putting together a deal over a longer period. Froman said the first step would be to have all 191 countries involved in the Copenhagen summit signing on to a framework that includes key ingredients such as how to finance the coordinated effort to battle climate change. The second step, a binding deal on cutting carbon emissions, would be hashed out in further negotiations. "I think the two steps was meant to reflect the realistic assessment that it was unrealistic to expect a full legally binding international agreement to be reached between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days," Froman said Sunday. Froman said Obama endorsed the two-step process, but the president still will not say wPresident Al Gore and other luminaries have lobbied Obama to attend, saying it would send a strong signal to the world about America's commitment to forging a deal. Meanwhile, in an official declaration released Sunday, the 21 nations that form APEC vowed to "work towards an ambitious outcome in Copenhagen," a vague promise that reflects how far from concrete actionthat the world's leading economies still find themselves. The leaders also reaffirmed a promise they made at a summit in 2007 to
reach "an APEC-wide aspirational target of reducing energy intensity by at least 25 percent by 2030."

G20 FAILS TO MAKE PROGRESS ON CLIMATE DEAL

WWF SCOTLAND

Finance ministers of the world’s dominant economies failed to reach agreement on the financing required for a global agreement to stave off catastrophic climate change, WWF said today as the G20 finance ministers meeting here broke up with no resolution to issues dividing developed and emerging economies. WWF expressed scepticism about their promise to make further progress before Copenhagen.

The lack of progress made by the G20 in St. Andrews, follows a week of difficult negotiations in UN climate talks in Barcelona as the world heads towards the crucial UN climate conference in Copenhagen in a month’s time.

The G20 Finance Ministers were asked to look at the financing required to make a new global deal at Copenhagen work. WWF’s summary of progress:

• the G20 acknowledged the need to increase significantly and urgently the scale of funding but failed to make any reference to the sums required, estimated to be around $160bn a year of public financing

• the G20 failed to agree on new sources of funding for a climate deal, such as auctioning emissions credits and levies on aviation and shipping

• the G20 agreed some principals on a mechanism to administer and distribute these funds but failed to turn these into concrete proposals

• despite last weeks pledge from Europe there is no new money on the table to help the most vulnerable countries adapt to a changing climate, around $10bn a year is needed.

Dr Richard Dixon, Director of WWF Scotland said:

“The G20 Finance Ministers meeting turned out to be a mostly irrelevant sideshow on the way to the talks in Copenhagen in a months’ time. Failure to come to agreement here is a major disappointment. Given that these are the people who run the biggest economies in the world it seems unlikely that they will manage to devote any serious time to the issue of climate finance before the start of the Copenhagen meeting.

“This is a group that can throw money at collapsing banks but cannot find adequate figures for the far worse challenge to the global economy of a collapsing climate system. Talk of a financial transaction tax has the potential to raise hundreds of billions in new funding every year, but turned out to be a red herring without solid political support.

“If we are to keep the planet below the danger threshold of a 2ºC temperature rise, the rich nations of the world are going to have to help developing countries follow a low-carbon development path and help them cope with the impacts of current and future climate change. We wanted to see solid proposals on how the money would be raised, managed and distributed and an indication of how soon the countries most vulnerable to climate change will receive assistance. The G20 has failed to deliver and the real work will now have to be done at Copenhagen.”

WWF endorsed the G20s continuing interest in winding back fossil fuel use subsidies, but said the group needed to focus its main attention on getting an effective global deal on climate.

Notes to Editors

[1] For more on the G20 meeting, including a 3-page briefing, see http://scotland.wwf.org.uk/g20

[2] The G20 currently consists of 19 major countries plus the European Union: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK and the US. The UK is the current chair of the G20 and the grouping also includes the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Collectively, the G20 economies comprise 85% of global gross national product, 80% of world trade and two-thirds of the world population.

[3] G20 Finance Ministers Communique

http://www.g20.org/pub_communiques.aspx

[4] Lord Stern’s review in 2006 showed that spending money now was much cheaper than waiting until climate change has got worse. He described climate change as the greatest market failure ever and estimated that tackling climate change would absorb 1% of global GDP every year if we start now.

For further information, please contact:

WWF Press officer Mandy Carter +(44)7771 818677 mcarter@wwfscotland.org.uk

WWF Scotland Director Dr Richard Dixon +(44)7887 821710 rdixon@wwfscotland.org.uk